Stories and advice from Jaxon Forge, the Founder of MoneyForged.com

I’ve built wealth the old-fashioned way — through systems, discipline, and never betting on government sugar. So when solar salesmen started showing up at my door promising “free money” and 5-year payback periods, my BS detector went off like a fire alarm.

Here’s the truth most “green energy” influencers won’t tell you: Solar panels are not a scam… but the way 90% of people buy them absolutely is. The payback period math is what separates the disciplined wealth builder from the virtue-signaling broke person chasing tax credits.

The Real Payback Math (No Subsidies, No Lies)

I ran the numbers on a typical $28,000 residential system in 2026. After federal tax credits, state rebates, and all the shiny incentives, the salesman says “you’ll pay it back in 6–8 years.”

I ran it without the handouts — because real capitalism doesn’t rely on your neighbor’s tax dollars. Here’s what actually happens:

• Installed cost: $28,000–$35,000
• Annual electric savings: $1,400–$2,200 (realistic after degradation)
• Maintenance + inverter replacement: $4,000–$6,000 every 10–12 years
• Real payback without subsidies: 14–22 years
• System lifespan: 25–30 years

That’s not “free energy.” That’s a mediocre investment at best. I can turn $28k into $250k+ in the same timeframe with boring businesses and disciplined compounding.

Why I Love Tariffs (And Why They Matter Here)

China dumps cheap solar panels on the U.S. market like they dump everything else. Without tariffs, American manufacturers get crushed. I’m a huge supporter of free markets — and that includes protecting them from predatory state-subsidized dumping.

Tariffs force real competition. They make domestic solar manufacturing viable again. They make the payback math actually work without begging Washington for more handouts. Capitalism + smart tariffs = American energy independence that actually builds wealth instead of political theater.

Interactive: Solar Payback Period Calculator

The Silent Killer: Comfort Masquerading as “Green Virtue”

Most people don’t buy solar for the math. They buy it so they can feel good posting pictures of their panels. That’s the same psychology that keeps high earners broke — chasing status instead of cash flow.

I only bet on assets I can control or truly understand. Solar can be part of a boring, cash-flow-positive portfolio if the payback works in a free market. But right now? Most installations are expensive virtue signals funded by your tax dollars.

Bottom Line

Solar isn’t a scam. But the hype around it is. Run your own numbers. Factor in tariffs protecting American manufacturing. Build wealth the disciplined way — not the Instagram way.

If the payback is under 10 years with zero subsidies, it might be worth it. Anything longer? You’re better off putting that capital into boring businesses that actually print cash.